The OEX refers to the S&P 100 Index, a professional market which large money managers use to hedge against large declines in the market. The QQQ refers to the NASDAQ-100 Index, a market dominated by small traders.
The OEX Dollar-Weighted Call-Put Ratio and the QQQ Dollar-Weighted Call-Put Ratio are computed by multiplying the premium paid for calls and puts by the number of contracts traded. We then divide the total call money volume by the put money volume. Here is an explanation of this short term sentiment ratio:
- The neutral value of the ratio is 1.00. This indicates investors are undecided about the outlook for stocks.
- Values between 1.00 and 2.00 indicate that investors are slightly bullish on the short term outlook in stocks. However, they remain conservative in this range, not expecting substantial upside, in general. Values in this range are typical for bull markets.
- Values above 2.00 represent overly-bullish levels. In strong bull markets, the ratio can remain in the overly-bullish category for an extended period of time. Values in this range tend to precede minor tops by about a week in moderate uptrends. Look for bearish divergence to help identify tops (bearish divergence is indicated when prices move to higher highs while the indicator records lower highs).
- Values between 0.50 and 1.00 are in the slightly bearish category. They tend to indicate that investors are somewhat cautious, but not overly cautious. Values in this range are typically seen during corrections in bull markets.
- Values below 0.50 are in the overly-bearish category and tend to occur just before correction lows within bull markets.
QQQ ratios may reflect actions of program traders. Thus, the normal analysis may not apply to them at all times. Program traders are generally right about the direction of the market.
Historical charts containing the daily figures for the OEX are available for viewing in this directory.
Archived close-only historical figures for OEX from 1992-2001 are available at http://www.marketclues.net/clues/oexcp98.html.
Archived intraday-calculated closing historical figures for OEX from 2001-present are available at http://www.marketclues.net/clues/oexcp01.html.
Archived intraday-calculated closing historical figures for QQQ from 2002-present are available at http://www.marketclues.net/clues/qqqcp01.html.